Detection rate
N/A
0 confirmed of 0 resolved
Public prediction scorecard
Live ledger for proving early trend calls.
Every call stays visible until it resolves. The system can claim statistical proof only when the ledger clears the proof contract below.
Snapshot
Nov 3, 2026, 6:16 AM
Precision
N/A
Avg confidence
84%
Confidence is tracked against real breakout outcomes, not vibe-based scoring.
Every pending call remains visible until it resolves confirmed or missed.
Lead time is measured against ground truth, not retroactive storytelling.
Proof status
Building proof
Do not claim statistically proven prediction accuracy until status is statistically_proven.
Live predictions needed
500
Resolved needed
200
Current blockers
5
Need 500 live predictions; have 220.Need 200 resolved predictions; have 0.Precision is unavailable because resolved predictions are insufficient.Recall must be >= 0.35; current 0.000.
Median lead time
N/A
11 ground truths tracked
Brier score
N/A
0.00 is perfect, 0.25 is random
Recall / F1
0% / 0%
2 predictions still pending
Competitive benchmark
Clean-room comparison against manually curated Exploding Topics public dates. No competitor scraping.
No benchmark observations curated yet. This section publishes head-to-head lead-time comparisons once manually verified competitor dates are added — we only show benchmarks we can source.
Resolved evidence receipts
Confirmed calls with the original timestamp, resolution date, measured lead time, and the ground-truth evidence that closed the loop.
No resolved receipts yet. The daily resolver is now scheduled; this section will populate only when live predictions confirm or miss against ground truth.
Calibration curve
Predicted probability versus actual breakout frequency. A model that says 80% should land near the diagonal.
0-20%0 preds
Predicted
N/A
Actual
N/A
20-40%0 preds
Predicted
N/A
Actual
N/A
40-60%0 preds
Predicted
N/A
Actual
N/A
60-80%0 preds
Predicted
N/A
Actual
N/A
80-100%0 preds
Predicted
N/A
Actual
N/A
Lead time timeline
Confirmed predictions plotted as detection date versus breakout date, with the bar length showing how much earlier TrendOS saw the move.
Confirmed predictions will appear here once the resolver starts accumulating breakout dates.
Source performance
Which source families are actually helping TrendOS call breakouts early.
exploding_topics
183 appearances · 183 pending
N/A
hit rate
Confirmed
0
Avg confidence
85%
Median lead
N/A
newsapi
123 appearances · 123 pending
N/A
hit rate
Confirmed
0
Avg confidence
85%
Median lead
N/A
hackernews
94 appearances · 94 pending
N/A
hit rate
Confirmed
0
Avg confidence
82%
Median lead
N/A
reddit
88 appearances · 88 pending
N/A
hit rate
Confirmed
0
Avg confidence
86%
Median lead
N/A
indiehackers
86 appearances · 86 pending
N/A
hit rate
Confirmed
0
Avg confidence
84%
Median lead
N/A
lesswrong
77 appearances · 77 pending
N/A
hit rate
Confirmed
0
Avg confidence
87%
Median lead
N/A
google_trends
75 appearances · 75 pending
N/A
hit rate
Confirmed
0
Avg confidence
85%
Median lead
N/A
twitter_research
58 appearances · 58 pending
N/A
hit rate
Confirmed
0
Avg confidence
86%
Median lead
N/A
bluesky
57 appearances · 57 pending
N/A
hit rate
Confirmed
0
Avg confidence
84%
Median lead
N/A
medium
41 appearances · 41 pending
N/A
hit rate
Confirmed
0
Avg confidence
91%
Median lead
N/A
stackexchange
35 appearances · 35 pending
N/A
hit rate
Confirmed
0
Avg confidence
82%
Median lead
N/A
arxiv
30 appearances · 30 pending
N/A
hit rate
Confirmed
0
Avg confidence
79%
Median lead
N/A
Category breakdown
Breakout performance by market category, so buyers can see where the engine is strongest today.
| Category | Total | Confirmed | Pending | Detection | Avg confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| uncategorized | 218 | 0 | 2 | N/A | 84% |
| other | 2 | 0 | 0 | N/A | 0% |
Live predictions ledger
Timestamped predictions, confidence at call time, current resolution status, and the source stack that supported each call.
| Topic | Status | Confidence | Sources | Lead | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OpenAI uncategorized OpenAI is accelerating across 6 sources; velocity=5.29, acceleration=4.94, coherence=0.54. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | pending | 80% raw 80% | 6 sources exploding_topicshackernewsindiehackersnewsapipodcaststackexchange | Pending horizon 180d | 23 hours ago |
transformer neural networks uncategorized transformer neural networks is accelerating across 5 sources; velocity=8.57, acceleration=3.00, coherence=0.54. | pending | 96% raw 96% | 5 sources arxivhackernewslesswrongopenalexsemantic_scholar | Pending horizon 180d | 23 hours ago |
Gemini uncategorized Gemini is accelerating across 5 sources; velocity=6.81, acceleration=2.12, coherence=0.56. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | ambiguous | 91% raw 91% | 5 sources exploding_topicshackernewslesswrongnewsapistackexchange | Pending horizon 180d | 4 days ago |
AI agents uncategorized AI agents is accelerating across 7 sources; velocity=7.58, acceleration=1.43, coherence=0.54. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | ambiguous | 78% raw 78% | 7 sources arxivexploding_topicshackernewsindiehackersnewsapipodcastreddit | Pending horizon 180d | 4 days ago |
Anthropic uncategorized Anthropic is accelerating across 4 sources; velocity=9.00, acceleration=9.00, coherence=0.57. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | ambiguous | 100% raw 100% | 4 sources exploding_topicshackernewsindiehackerslesswrong | Pending horizon 180d | 5 days ago |
Claude uncategorized Claude is accelerating across 5 sources; velocity=5.81, acceleration=1.54, coherence=0.48. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | ambiguous | 66% raw 66% | 5 sources blueskyexploding_topicshackernewsindiehackersrss_research | Pending horizon 180d | 6 days ago |
LLMs uncategorized LLMs is accelerating across 7 sources; velocity=6.99, acceleration=1.83, coherence=0.55. | ambiguous | 81% raw 81% | 7 sources arxivblueskyhackernewslesswrongopenalexpubmedstackexchange | Pending horizon 180d | 14 days ago |
Anthropic uncategorized Anthropic is accelerating across 3 sources; velocity=3.78, acceleration=1.76, coherence=0.53. | ambiguous | 76% raw 76% | 3 sources arxivexploding_topicshackernews | Pending horizon 180d | 15 days ago |
Claude uncategorized Claude is accelerating across 5 sources; velocity=3.78, acceleration=2.55, coherence=0.49. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | ambiguous | 76% raw 76% | 5 sources blueskyhackernewsindiehackerslesswrongstackexchange | Pending horizon 180d | 21 days ago |
LLMs uncategorized LLMs is accelerating across 8 sources; velocity=4.85, acceleration=12.45, coherence=0.55. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | ambiguous | 89% raw 89% | 8 sources arxivblueskyhackernewslesswrongopenalexpubmedsemantic_scholarstackexchange | Pending horizon 180d | 21 days ago |
AI agents uncategorized AI agents is accelerating across 6 sources; velocity=5.93, acceleration=5.93, coherence=0.53. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | ambiguous | 83% raw 83% | 6 sources arxivexploding_topicshackernewsindiehackersnewsapirss_research | Pending horizon 180d | 21 days ago |
AI agents uncategorized AI agents is accelerating across 6 sources; velocity=3.83, acceleration=1.97, coherence=0.53. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | ambiguous | 80% raw 80% | 6 sources arxivhackernewsindiehackersnewsapipubmedrss_research | Pending horizon 180d | 24 days ago |
OpenAI uncategorized OpenAI is accelerating across 3 sources; velocity=5.71, acceleration=6.67, coherence=0.49. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | ambiguous | 67% raw 67% | 3 sources exploding_topicshackernewspodcast | Pending horizon 180d | 24 days ago |
Claude uncategorized Claude is accelerating across 5 sources; velocity=2.41, acceleration=1.75, coherence=0.49. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | ambiguous | 78% raw 78% | 5 sources blueskyhackernewslesswrongrss_researchstackexchangesubstack | Pending horizon 180d | 24 days ago |
LLMs uncategorized LLMs is accelerating across 7 sources; velocity=4.88, acceleration=3.60, coherence=0.53. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | ambiguous | 82% raw 82% | 7 sources arxivblueskyhackernewslesswrongopenalexpubmedstackexchange | Pending horizon 180d | 27 days ago |
AI Safety Evidence Audits uncategorized AI Safety Evidence Audits is accelerating across 4 sources; velocity=5.89, acceleration=2.98, coherence=0.55. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | ambiguous | 82% raw 82% | 4 sources exploding_topicslesswrongredditsubstack | Pending horizon 180d | 1 month ago |
Production AI Decision Models uncategorized Production AI Decision Models is accelerating across 5 sources; velocity=6.43, acceleration=4.50, coherence=0.67. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | ambiguous | 100% raw 100% | 5 sources exploding_topicsgoogle_trendsindiehackerspodcastsubstack | Pending horizon 180d | 1 month ago |
Multi-Agent AI Orchestration For Builders uncategorized Multi-Agent AI Orchestration For Builders is accelerating across 3 sources; velocity=7.50, acceleration=7.50, coherence=0.54. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | ambiguous | 76% raw 76% | 3 sources exploding_topicsindiehackerslesswrong | Pending horizon 180d | 1 month ago |