Detection rate
N/A
0 confirmed of 0 resolved
Public prediction scorecard
Live ledger for proving early trend calls.
Every call stays visible until it resolves. The system can claim statistical proof only when the ledger clears the proof contract below.
Snapshot
Jun 20, 2026, 3:37 PM
Precision
N/A
Avg confidence
69%
Confidence is tracked against real breakout outcomes, not vibe-based scoring.
Every pending call remains visible until it resolves confirmed or missed.
Lead time is measured against ground truth, not retroactive storytelling.
Proof status
Building proof
Do not claim statistically proven prediction accuracy until status is statistically_proven.
Live predictions needed
500
Resolved needed
200
Current blockers
5
Need 500 live predictions; have 20.Need 200 resolved predictions; have 0.Precision is unavailable because resolved predictions are insufficient.Recall must be >= 0.35; current 0.000.
Median lead time
N/A
11 ground truths tracked
Brier score
N/A
0.00 is perfect, 0.25 is random
Recall / F1
0% / 0%
20 predictions still pending
Competitive benchmark
Clean-room comparison against manually curated Exploding Topics public dates. No competitor scraping.
No benchmark observations curated yet. This section publishes head-to-head lead-time comparisons once manually verified competitor dates are added — we only show benchmarks we can source.
Resolved evidence receipts
Confirmed calls with the original timestamp, resolution date, measured lead time, and the ground-truth evidence that closed the loop.
No resolved receipts yet. The daily resolver is now scheduled; this section will populate only when live predictions confirm or miss against ground truth.
Calibration curve
Predicted probability versus actual breakout frequency. A model that says 80% should land near the diagonal.
0-20%0 preds
Predicted
N/A
Actual
N/A
20-40%0 preds
Predicted
N/A
Actual
N/A
40-60%0 preds
Predicted
N/A
Actual
N/A
60-80%0 preds
Predicted
N/A
Actual
N/A
80-100%0 preds
Predicted
N/A
Actual
N/A
Lead time timeline
Confirmed predictions plotted as detection date versus breakout date, with the bar length showing how much earlier TrendOS saw the move.
Confirmed predictions will appear here once the resolver starts accumulating breakout dates.
Source performance
Which source families are actually helping TrendOS call breakouts early.
exploding_topics
13 appearances · 13 pending
N/A
hit rate
Confirmed
0
Avg confidence
79%
Median lead
N/A
hackernews
11 appearances · 11 pending
N/A
hit rate
Confirmed
0
Avg confidence
78%
Median lead
N/A
newsapi
10 appearances · 10 pending
N/A
hit rate
Confirmed
0
Avg confidence
77%
Median lead
N/A
indiehackers
9 appearances · 9 pending
N/A
hit rate
Confirmed
0
Avg confidence
73%
Median lead
N/A
google_trends
7 appearances · 7 pending
N/A
hit rate
Confirmed
0
Avg confidence
69%
Median lead
N/A
reddit
7 appearances · 7 pending
N/A
hit rate
Confirmed
0
Avg confidence
69%
Median lead
N/A
lesswrong
6 appearances · 6 pending
N/A
hit rate
Confirmed
0
Avg confidence
79%
Median lead
N/A
stackexchange
6 appearances · 6 pending
N/A
hit rate
Confirmed
0
Avg confidence
73%
Median lead
N/A
bluesky
4 appearances · 4 pending
N/A
hit rate
Confirmed
0
Avg confidence
72%
Median lead
N/A
twitter_research
4 appearances · 4 pending
N/A
hit rate
Confirmed
0
Avg confidence
76%
Median lead
N/A
rss_research
3 appearances · 3 pending
N/A
hit rate
Confirmed
0
Avg confidence
80%
Median lead
N/A
pubmed
3 appearances · 3 pending
N/A
hit rate
Confirmed
0
Avg confidence
79%
Median lead
N/A
Category breakdown
Breakout performance by market category, so buyers can see where the engine is strongest today.
| Category | Total | Confirmed | Pending | Detection | Avg confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| uncategorized | 18 | 0 | 18 | N/A | 76% |
| other | 2 | 0 | 2 | N/A | 0% |
Live predictions ledger
Timestamped predictions, confidence at call time, current resolution status, and the source stack that supported each call.
| Topic | Status | Confidence | Sources | Lead | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AI Job Displacement and Developer Tools uncategorized AI Job Displacement and Developer Tools is accelerating across 10 sources; velocity=1.21, acceleration=1.21, coherence=0.69. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | pending | 66% raw 66% | 10 sources exploding_topicsgoogle_trendshackernewsindiehackerslesswronglobstersnewsapiredditrss_researchstackexchange | Pending horizon 180d | 13 hours ago |
AI Desktop Assistants and Interface Innovation uncategorized AI Desktop Assistants and Interface Innovation is accelerating across 6 sources; velocity=1.34, acceleration=1.34, coherence=0.67. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | pending | 65% raw 65% | 6 sources exploding_topicsgoodreadsgoogle_trendsindiehackersnewsapiwattpad | Pending horizon 180d | 13 hours ago |
Federal Regulatory Comment Participation uncategorized Federal Regulatory Comment Participation is accelerating across 5 sources; velocity=1.44, acceleration=1.44, coherence=0.71. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | pending | 68% raw 68% | 5 sources hackernewsopenalexpubmedredditstackexchange | Pending horizon 180d | 13 hours ago |
Open Source LLM Key Management uncategorized Open Source LLM Key Management is accelerating across 4 sources; velocity=1.44, acceleration=1.44, coherence=0.71. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | pending | 68% raw 68% | 4 sources hackernewsnewsapiredditstackexchange | Pending horizon 180d | 13 hours ago |
Crypto Arbitrage And Trading Opportunities uncategorized Crypto Arbitrage And Trading Opportunities is accelerating across 4 sources; velocity=1.44, acceleration=1.44, coherence=0.71. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | pending | 75% raw 75% | 4 sources blueskygoogle_trendsmediumnewsapi | Pending horizon 180d | 13 hours ago |
AI Skepticism And Human Advantage uncategorized AI Skepticism And Human Advantage is accelerating across 10 sources; velocity=1.44, acceleration=1.44, coherence=0.71. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | pending | 74% raw 74% | 10 sources blueskyexploding_topicshackernewsindiehackerslesswrongmediumnewsapiredditrss_researchtwitter_research | Pending horizon 180d | 13 hours ago |
AI Security and Developer Ecosystem Risks uncategorized AI Security and Developer Ecosystem Risks is accelerating across 5 sources; velocity=1.22, acceleration=1.22, coherence=0.71. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | pending | 70% raw 70% | 5 sources exploding_topicsgoogle_trendsindiehackersnewsapiwattpad | Pending horizon 180d | 1 day ago |
Workplace Communication And Career Resilience uncategorized Workplace Communication And Career Resilience is accelerating across 6 sources; velocity=1.26, acceleration=1.26, coherence=0.71. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | pending | 66% raw 66% | 6 sources exploding_topicsindiehackerslesswrongredditstackexchangetwitter_research | Pending horizon 180d | 1 day ago |
Self-Discipline and Consistency Mastery uncategorized Self-Discipline and Consistency Mastery is accelerating across 5 sources; velocity=1.26, acceleration=1.26, coherence=0.67. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | pending | 65% raw 65% | 5 sources google_trendshackernewsindiehackersreddittwitter_research | Pending horizon 180d | 1 day ago |
AI Productivity Tools and Second Brains uncategorized AI Productivity Tools and Second Brains is accelerating across 5 sources; velocity=1.32, acceleration=1.32, coherence=0.71. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | pending | 70% raw 70% | 5 sources exploding_topicsgoogle_trendsindiehackersnewsapipubmed | Pending horizon 180d | 1 day ago |
Public Comment Advocacy And Regulatory Change uncategorized Public Comment Advocacy And Regulatory Change is accelerating across 5 sources; velocity=1.32, acceleration=1.32, coherence=0.71. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | pending | 72% raw 72% | 5 sources blueskyexploding_topicsgoogle_trendshackernewsreddit | Pending horizon 180d | 1 day ago |
Decision Fatigue And Work Productivity uncategorized Decision Fatigue And Work Productivity is accelerating across 3 sources; velocity=1.32, acceleration=1.32, coherence=0.71. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | pending | 67% raw 67% | 3 sources blueskyexploding_topicsmedium | Pending horizon 180d | 1 day ago |
LLM Agent Safety And Optimization uncategorized LLM Agent Safety And Optimization is accelerating across 5 sources; velocity=1.32, acceleration=1.32, coherence=0.71. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | pending | 68% raw 68% | 5 sources arxivhackernewslesswronglobstersstackexchange | Pending horizon 180d | 1 day ago |
Gemini uncategorized Gemini is accelerating across 5 sources; velocity=9.18, acceleration=9.18, coherence=0.62. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | pending | 100% raw 100% | 5 sources exploding_topicsgithubhackernewsnewsapipubmed | Pending horizon 180d | 10 days ago |
AI Search Visibility Strategies uncategorized AI Search Visibility Strategies is accelerating across 5 sources; velocity=12.86, acceleration=12.86, coherence=0.71. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | pending | 100% raw 100% | 5 sources exploding_topicsindiehackerslesswrongrss_researchtwitter_research | Pending horizon 180d | 10 days ago |
AI agents uncategorized AI agents is accelerating across 5 sources; velocity=4.08, acceleration=4.55, coherence=0.53. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | pending | 80% raw 80% | 5 sources exploding_topicshackernewsindiehackersnewsapisemantic_scholar | Pending horizon 180d | 13 days ago |
Anthropic uncategorized Anthropic is accelerating across 4 sources; velocity=8.41, acceleration=8.41, coherence=0.57. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | pending | 98% raw 98% | 4 sources exploding_topicshackernewslesswrongnewsapi | Pending horizon 180d | 13 days ago |
transformer neural networks uncategorized transformer neural networks is accelerating across 7 sources; velocity=5.82, acceleration=5.82, coherence=0.61. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | pending | 100% raw 100% | 7 sources arxivdockerhubexploding_topicshackernewsopenalexsemantic_scholarstackexchange | Pending horizon 180d | 13 days ago |