Detection rate
N/A
0 confirmed of 0 resolved
Public prediction scorecard
Live ledger for proving early trend calls.
Every call stays visible until it resolves. The system can claim statistical proof only when the ledger clears the proof contract below.
Snapshot
Sep 19, 2026, 4:24 AM
Precision
N/A
Avg confidence
84%
Confidence is tracked against real breakout outcomes, not vibe-based scoring.
Every pending call remains visible until it resolves confirmed or missed.
Lead time is measured against ground truth, not retroactive storytelling.
Proof status
Building proof
Do not claim statistically proven prediction accuracy until status is statistically_proven.
Live predictions needed
500
Resolved needed
200
Current blockers
5
Need 500 live predictions; have 191.Need 200 resolved predictions; have 0.Precision is unavailable because resolved predictions are insufficient.Recall must be >= 0.35; current 0.000.
Median lead time
N/A
11 ground truths tracked
Brier score
N/A
0.00 is perfect, 0.25 is random
Recall / F1
0% / 0%
3 predictions still pending
Competitive benchmark
Clean-room comparison against manually curated Exploding Topics public dates. No competitor scraping.
No benchmark observations curated yet. This section publishes head-to-head lead-time comparisons once manually verified competitor dates are added — we only show benchmarks we can source.
Resolved evidence receipts
Confirmed calls with the original timestamp, resolution date, measured lead time, and the ground-truth evidence that closed the loop.
No resolved receipts yet. The daily resolver is now scheduled; this section will populate only when live predictions confirm or miss against ground truth.
Calibration curve
Predicted probability versus actual breakout frequency. A model that says 80% should land near the diagonal.
0-20%0 preds
Predicted
N/A
Actual
N/A
20-40%0 preds
Predicted
N/A
Actual
N/A
40-60%0 preds
Predicted
N/A
Actual
N/A
60-80%0 preds
Predicted
N/A
Actual
N/A
80-100%0 preds
Predicted
N/A
Actual
N/A
Lead time timeline
Confirmed predictions plotted as detection date versus breakout date, with the bar length showing how much earlier TrendOS saw the move.
Confirmed predictions will appear here once the resolver starts accumulating breakout dates.
Source performance
Which source families are actually helping TrendOS call breakouts early.
exploding_topics
161 appearances · 161 pending
N/A
hit rate
Confirmed
0
Avg confidence
85%
Median lead
N/A
newsapi
111 appearances · 111 pending
N/A
hit rate
Confirmed
0
Avg confidence
85%
Median lead
N/A
reddit
81 appearances · 81 pending
N/A
hit rate
Confirmed
0
Avg confidence
85%
Median lead
N/A
hackernews
75 appearances · 75 pending
N/A
hit rate
Confirmed
0
Avg confidence
82%
Median lead
N/A
indiehackers
71 appearances · 71 pending
N/A
hit rate
Confirmed
0
Avg confidence
83%
Median lead
N/A
google_trends
70 appearances · 70 pending
N/A
hit rate
Confirmed
0
Avg confidence
85%
Median lead
N/A
lesswrong
63 appearances · 63 pending
N/A
hit rate
Confirmed
0
Avg confidence
87%
Median lead
N/A
twitter_research
58 appearances · 58 pending
N/A
hit rate
Confirmed
0
Avg confidence
86%
Median lead
N/A
bluesky
49 appearances · 49 pending
N/A
hit rate
Confirmed
0
Avg confidence
86%
Median lead
N/A
medium
41 appearances · 41 pending
N/A
hit rate
Confirmed
0
Avg confidence
91%
Median lead
N/A
stackexchange
28 appearances · 28 pending
N/A
hit rate
Confirmed
0
Avg confidence
81%
Median lead
N/A
pubmed
25 appearances · 25 pending
N/A
hit rate
Confirmed
0
Avg confidence
77%
Median lead
N/A
Category breakdown
Breakout performance by market category, so buyers can see where the engine is strongest today.
| Category | Total | Confirmed | Pending | Detection | Avg confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| uncategorized | 189 | 0 | 3 | N/A | 84% |
| other | 2 | 0 | 0 | N/A | 0% |
Live predictions ledger
Timestamped predictions, confidence at call time, current resolution status, and the source stack that supported each call.
| Topic | Status | Confidence | Sources | Lead | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Claude uncategorized Claude is accelerating across 4 sources; velocity=3.38, acceleration=2.46, coherence=0.49. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | pending | 75% raw 75% | 4 sources blueskyexploding_topicshackernewsindiehackers | Pending horizon 180d | 1 day ago |
AI agents uncategorized AI agents is accelerating across 4 sources; velocity=3.51, acceleration=1.25, coherence=0.49. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | pending | 81% raw 81% | 4 sources arxivhackernewsindiehackersnewsapi | Pending horizon 180d | 1 day ago |
LLMs uncategorized LLMs is accelerating across 8 sources; velocity=4.80, acceleration=4.01, coherence=0.55. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | pending | 82% raw 82% | 8 sources arxivblueskyexploding_topicshackernewsindiehackerslesswrongopenalexpubmed | Pending horizon 180d | 1 day ago |
Anthropic uncategorized Anthropic is accelerating across 3 sources; velocity=5.62, acceleration=5.62, coherence=0.56. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | ambiguous | 81% raw 81% | 3 sources exploding_topicshackernewsnewsapi | Pending horizon 180d | 9 days ago |
Claude uncategorized Claude is accelerating across 4 sources; velocity=4.40, acceleration=4.63, coherence=0.47. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | ambiguous | 68% raw 68% | 4 sources blueskyexploding_topicshackernewsindiehackers | Pending horizon 180d | 11 days ago |
LLMs uncategorized LLMs is accelerating across 6 sources; velocity=5.99, acceleration=7.87, coherence=0.50. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | ambiguous | 69% raw 69% | 6 sources arxivblueskyexploding_topicshackernewsindiehackerspubmed | Pending horizon 180d | 11 days ago |
transformer neural networks uncategorized transformer neural networks is accelerating across 6 sources; velocity=6.35, acceleration=6.35, coherence=0.56. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | ambiguous | 86% raw 86% | 6 sources arxivexploding_topicsnewsapiopenalexstackexchangesubstack | Pending horizon 180d | 11 days ago |
OpenAI uncategorized OpenAI is accelerating across 6 sources; velocity=6.43, acceleration=3.25, coherence=0.60. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | ambiguous | 95% raw 95% | 6 sources exploding_topicshackernewsindiehackerslesswrongnewsapipodcast | Pending horizon 180d | 11 days ago |
AI agents uncategorized AI agents is accelerating across 4 sources; velocity=2.72, acceleration=2.72, coherence=0.53. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | ambiguous | 78% raw 78% | 4 sources exploding_topicshackernewsindiehackerspodcast | Pending horizon 180d | 13 days ago |
Claude uncategorized Claude is accelerating across 4 sources; velocity=3.12, acceleration=2.43, coherence=0.48. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | ambiguous | 69% raw 69% | 4 sources blueskyexploding_topicshackernewsindiehackers | Pending horizon 180d | 16 days ago |
LLMs uncategorized LLMs is accelerating across 5 sources; velocity=2.00, acceleration=2.43, coherence=0.48. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | ambiguous | 65% raw 65% | 5 sources arxivblueskyexploding_topicshackernewspubmed | Pending horizon 180d | 16 days ago |
OpenAI uncategorized OpenAI is accelerating across 5 sources; velocity=3.86, acceleration=1.73, coherence=0.56. | ambiguous | 84% raw 84% | 5 sources exploding_topicshackernewsindiehackerslesswrongnewsapi | Pending horizon 180d | 16 days ago |
transformer neural networks uncategorized transformer neural networks is accelerating across 4 sources; velocity=4.32, acceleration=4.86, coherence=0.51. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | ambiguous | 73% raw 73% | 4 sources arxivopenalexstackexchangesubstack | Pending horizon 180d | 18 days ago |
LLMs uncategorized LLMs is accelerating across 6 sources; velocity=2.37, acceleration=1.71, coherence=0.53. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | ambiguous | 75% raw 75% | 6 sources arxivblueskyexploding_topicshackernewsopenalexpubmed | Pending horizon 180d | 1 month ago |
Claude uncategorized Claude is accelerating across 5 sources; velocity=3.23, acceleration=7.11, coherence=0.51. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | ambiguous | 75% raw 75% | 5 sources blueskyhackernewsindiehackersrss_researchtwitter_research | Pending horizon 180d | 1 month ago |
AI agents uncategorized AI agents is accelerating across 6 sources; velocity=3.83, acceleration=2.85, coherence=0.54. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | ambiguous | 82% raw 82% | 6 sources arxivexploding_topicshackernewsindiehackersnewsapipubmed | Pending horizon 180d | 1 month ago |
OpenAI uncategorized OpenAI is accelerating across 6 sources; velocity=6.30, acceleration=2.04, coherence=0.60. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | ambiguous | 93% raw 93% | 6 sources exploding_topicshackernewsindiehackerslesswrongnewsapipodcast | Pending horizon 180d | 1 month ago |
AI agents uncategorized AI agents is accelerating across 4 sources; velocity=2.40, acceleration=2.40, coherence=0.51. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | ambiguous | 75% raw 75% | 4 sources arxivexploding_topicshackernewsindiehackers | Pending horizon 180d | 2 months ago |