Detection rate
N/A
0 confirmed of 0 resolved
Public prediction scorecard
Live ledger for proving early trend calls.
Every call stays visible until it resolves. The system can claim statistical proof only when the ledger clears the proof contract below.
Snapshot
Aug 4, 2026, 10:35 PM
Precision
N/A
Avg confidence
84%
Confidence is tracked against real breakout outcomes, not vibe-based scoring.
Every pending call remains visible until it resolves confirmed or missed.
Lead time is measured against ground truth, not retroactive storytelling.
Proof status
Building proof
Do not claim statistically proven prediction accuracy until status is statistically_proven.
Live predictions needed
500
Resolved needed
200
Current blockers
5
Need 500 live predictions; have 171.Need 200 resolved predictions; have 0.Precision is unavailable because resolved predictions are insufficient.Recall must be >= 0.35; current 0.000.
Median lead time
N/A
11 ground truths tracked
Brier score
N/A
0.00 is perfect, 0.25 is random
Recall / F1
0% / 0%
2 predictions still pending
Competitive benchmark
Clean-room comparison against manually curated Exploding Topics public dates. No competitor scraping.
No benchmark observations curated yet. This section publishes head-to-head lead-time comparisons once manually verified competitor dates are added — we only show benchmarks we can source.
Resolved evidence receipts
Confirmed calls with the original timestamp, resolution date, measured lead time, and the ground-truth evidence that closed the loop.
No resolved receipts yet. The daily resolver is now scheduled; this section will populate only when live predictions confirm or miss against ground truth.
Calibration curve
Predicted probability versus actual breakout frequency. A model that says 80% should land near the diagonal.
0-20%0 preds
Predicted
N/A
Actual
N/A
20-40%0 preds
Predicted
N/A
Actual
N/A
40-60%0 preds
Predicted
N/A
Actual
N/A
60-80%0 preds
Predicted
N/A
Actual
N/A
80-100%0 preds
Predicted
N/A
Actual
N/A
Lead time timeline
Confirmed predictions plotted as detection date versus breakout date, with the bar length showing how much earlier TrendOS saw the move.
Confirmed predictions will appear here once the resolver starts accumulating breakout dates.
Source performance
Which source families are actually helping TrendOS call breakouts early.
exploding_topics
144 appearances · 144 pending
N/A
hit rate
Confirmed
0
Avg confidence
86%
Median lead
N/A
newsapi
103 appearances · 103 pending
N/A
hit rate
Confirmed
0
Avg confidence
85%
Median lead
N/A
reddit
81 appearances · 81 pending
N/A
hit rate
Confirmed
0
Avg confidence
85%
Median lead
N/A
google_trends
70 appearances · 70 pending
N/A
hit rate
Confirmed
0
Avg confidence
85%
Median lead
N/A
lesswrong
58 appearances · 58 pending
N/A
hit rate
Confirmed
0
Avg confidence
87%
Median lead
N/A
indiehackers
57 appearances · 57 pending
N/A
hit rate
Confirmed
0
Avg confidence
84%
Median lead
N/A
twitter_research
57 appearances · 57 pending
N/A
hit rate
Confirmed
0
Avg confidence
86%
Median lead
N/A
hackernews
57 appearances · 57 pending
N/A
hit rate
Confirmed
0
Avg confidence
82%
Median lead
N/A
medium
41 appearances · 41 pending
N/A
hit rate
Confirmed
0
Avg confidence
91%
Median lead
N/A
bluesky
41 appearances · 41 pending
N/A
hit rate
Confirmed
0
Avg confidence
88%
Median lead
N/A
stackexchange
25 appearances · 25 pending
N/A
hit rate
Confirmed
0
Avg confidence
81%
Median lead
N/A
rss_research
20 appearances · 20 pending
N/A
hit rate
Confirmed
0
Avg confidence
85%
Median lead
N/A
Category breakdown
Breakout performance by market category, so buyers can see where the engine is strongest today.
| Category | Total | Confirmed | Pending | Detection | Avg confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| uncategorized | 169 | 0 | 2 | N/A | 85% |
| other | 2 | 0 | 0 | N/A | 0% |
Live predictions ledger
Timestamped predictions, confidence at call time, current resolution status, and the source stack that supported each call.
| Topic | Status | Confidence | Sources | Lead | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Personal Finance Mistakes And Recovery uncategorized Personal Finance Mistakes And Recovery is accelerating across 5 sources; velocity=5.37, acceleration=2.62, coherence=0.63. | pending | 100% raw 100% | 5 sources exploding_topicsindiehackerslesswrongreddittwitter_research | Pending horizon 180d | 6 days ago |
OpenAI uncategorized OpenAI is accelerating across 4 sources; velocity=4.82, acceleration=4.01, coherence=0.55. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | ambiguous | 84% raw 84% | 4 sources exploding_topicshackernewslesswrongnewsapi | Pending horizon 180d | 7 days ago |
Sports Betting and Bonus Code Strategies uncategorized Sports Betting and Bonus Code Strategies is accelerating across 5 sources; velocity=1.21, acceleration=1.21, coherence=0.55. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | ambiguous | 69% raw 69% | 5 sources exploding_topicsgoogle_trendslistennotesmastodonmedium | Pending horizon 180d | 8 days ago |
Adaptive Learning and Personalized Education Paths uncategorized Adaptive Learning and Personalized Education Paths is accelerating across 5 sources; velocity=1.49, acceleration=5.96, coherence=0.54. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | pending | 66% raw 66% | 5 sources blueskylesswrongmastodonmediumproducthunt | Pending horizon 180d | 8 days ago |
Micro SaaS Growth Stories uncategorized Micro SaaS Growth Stories is accelerating across 4 sources; velocity=2.15, acceleration=2.15, coherence=0.61. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | ambiguous | 83% raw 83% | 4 sources exploding_topicsindiehackerslistennotesrss_research | Pending horizon 180d | 8 days ago |
AI Copyright and Legal Battles uncategorized AI Copyright and Legal Battles is accelerating across 4 sources; velocity=2.39, acceleration=2.39, coherence=0.61. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | ambiguous | 91% raw 91% | 4 sources blueskyexploding_topicslistennotesmastodon | Pending horizon 180d | 8 days ago |
ChatGPT Ecosystem and Plugin Marketing uncategorized ChatGPT Ecosystem and Plugin Marketing is accelerating across 4 sources; velocity=4.13, acceleration=4.13, coherence=0.59. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | ambiguous | 86% raw 86% | 4 sources blueskyexploding_topicsmastodonrss_research | Pending horizon 180d | 8 days ago |
WordPress Security And Open-Source Alternatives uncategorized WordPress Security And Open-Source Alternatives is accelerating across 5 sources; velocity=1.42, acceleration=1.45, coherence=0.54. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | ambiguous | 65% raw 65% | 5 sources blueskyexploding_topicsgoogle_trendsmastodonmedium | Pending horizon 180d | 11 days ago |
Claude uncategorized Claude is accelerating across 6 sources; velocity=5.00, acceleration=6.41, coherence=0.56. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | ambiguous | 86% raw 86% | 6 sources githubhackernewslistennotesmastodonnewsapireddit | Pending horizon 180d | 11 days ago |
AI agents uncategorized AI agents is accelerating across 6 sources; velocity=5.30, acceleration=2.43, coherence=0.60. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | ambiguous | 100% raw 100% | 6 sources githubhackernewslistennotesmastodonpodcastpubmed | Pending horizon 180d | 11 days ago |
AI Safety and Public Trust uncategorized AI Safety and Public Trust is accelerating across 5 sources; velocity=5.81, acceleration=5.81, coherence=0.67. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | ambiguous | 100% raw 100% | 5 sources blueskyexploding_topicslesswrongmastodonrss_research | Pending horizon 180d | 11 days ago |
Optimism and Happiness in Uncertain Times uncategorized Optimism and Happiness in Uncertain Times is accelerating across 3 sources; velocity=6.46, acceleration=6.46, coherence=0.71. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | ambiguous | 100% raw 100% | 3 sources blueskygoogle_trendssubstack | Pending horizon 180d | 11 days ago |
LLMs uncategorized LLMs is accelerating across 7 sources; velocity=2.06, acceleration=1.94, coherence=0.57. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | ambiguous | 79% raw 79% | 7 sources arxivblueskygithubhackernewsmastodonpodcastpubmed | Pending horizon 180d | 12 days ago |
Home Security And Privacy Tech uncategorized Home Security And Privacy Tech is accelerating across 5 sources; velocity=2.30, acceleration=2.30, coherence=0.71. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | ambiguous | 100% raw 100% | 5 sources exploding_topicsindiehackerslistennotesmastodonmedium | Pending horizon 180d | 12 days ago |
AI Safety And Public Trust uncategorized AI Safety And Public Trust is accelerating across 7 sources; velocity=2.74, acceleration=17.51, coherence=0.61. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | ambiguous | 91% raw 91% | 7 sources blueskyexploding_topicslesswrongmastodonmediumrss_researchsubstack | Pending horizon 180d | 12 days ago |
AI Workflow Agent Toolkits uncategorized AI Workflow Agent Toolkits is accelerating across 7 sources; velocity=3.46, acceleration=4.56, coherence=0.62. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | ambiguous | 84% raw 84% | 7 sources exploding_topicsindiehackerslesswronglistennotesmastodonmediumproducthunt | Pending horizon 180d | 12 days ago |
Severe Weather Alerts And Preparedness uncategorized Severe Weather Alerts And Preparedness is accelerating across 6 sources; velocity=6.14, acceleration=6.14, coherence=0.67. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | ambiguous | 100% raw 100% | 6 sources blueskyexploding_topicsgoogle_trendslistennotesmastodonsubstack | Pending horizon 180d | 12 days ago |
AI Model Security And Cyber Risks uncategorized AI Model Security And Cyber Risks is accelerating across 7 sources; velocity=6.31, acceleration=6.31, coherence=0.71. Promoted from watchlist to daily prediction ledger after passing source-family and momentum gates. | ambiguous | 100% raw 100% | 7 sources blueskyexploding_topicsindiehackerslesswrongmastodonmediumproducthunt | Pending horizon 180d | 12 days ago |