Detection rate
N/A
0 confirmed of 0 resolved
Public prediction scorecard
Public proof that TrendOS calls the next wave early.
This page is the operating ledger: every call, every miss, the calibration curve, and how much lead time the engine earned before Google Trends confirmed the breakout.
Snapshot
May 2, 2026, 11:23 PM
Precision
N/A
Avg confidence
0%
Confidence is tracked against real breakout outcomes, not vibe-based scoring.
Every pending call remains visible until it resolves confirmed or missed.
Lead time is measured against ground truth, not retroactive storytelling.
Median lead time
N/A
0 ground truths tracked
Brier score
N/A
0.00 is perfect, 0.25 is random
Recall / F1
N/A / N/A
2 predictions still pending
Competitive benchmark
Clean-room comparison against manually curated Exploding Topics public dates. No competitor scraping.
Add manual observations to `tool/backend/database/exploding_topics_benchmark.json` to publish the benchmark proof section.
Calibration curve
Predicted probability versus actual breakout frequency. A model that says 80% should land near the diagonal.
0-20%0 preds
Predicted
N/A
Actual
N/A
20-40%0 preds
Predicted
N/A
Actual
N/A
40-60%0 preds
Predicted
N/A
Actual
N/A
60-80%0 preds
Predicted
N/A
Actual
N/A
80-100%0 preds
Predicted
N/A
Actual
N/A
Lead time timeline
Confirmed predictions plotted as detection date versus breakout date, with the bar length showing how much earlier TrendOS saw the move.
Confirmed predictions will appear here once the resolver starts accumulating breakout dates.
Source performance
Which source families are actually helping TrendOS call breakouts early.
Source performance will populate once predictions have been resolved against ground truth.
Category breakdown
Breakout performance by market category, so buyers can see where the engine is strongest today.
| Category | Total | Confirmed | Pending | Detection | Avg confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| other | 2 | 0 | 2 | N/A | 0% |
Live predictions ledger
Timestamped predictions, confidence at call time, current resolution status, and the source stack that supported each call.
| Topic | Status | Confidence | Sources | Lead | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Cognitive Dark Forest other | pending | 0% raw 0% | 0 sources | Pending horizon 180d | 1 month ago |
Neovim 0.12.0 other | pending | 0% raw 0% | 0 sources | Pending horizon 180d | 1 month ago |